Canis Domesticus

Senate Phase, Consular Nominations

Consul Votes due 10/30, Tuesday

Senate Phase

The Debate

Valerius addresses the Senate:

"Conscript Fathers!

"I believe we are all agreed that the next set of Consuls must be chosen to match the war strategy that this Senate decides upon.

"We have three different paths we can take this year.

"The first is to do nothing, hoarding our talents until they can buy many ships and troops next year. I do not recommend this, nor does any in this house I suspect. It would, of course, have been our only recourse had we been faced with a "No Recruiting" result. If this path be taken, we may elect men of minimal military skills.

"The second is to only attack the Carthaginian fleet this year. There is a certain economy to this. No new armies need be raised and no armies need be loaded on the fleets, so no army will be lost at sea. After the sea battle is won and we have control of Mare Internum, it will be safe to shuttle troops into the African homeland and take the battle to the foe. The downside, of course is that the foe will be considerably strengthened by the 2nd Punic by that time. This would be the strategy I would've espoused had not the 2nd Punic appeared and it may still be our wisest choice. For this, one candidate must have a high military rating and the other should not.

"The third is to try to attack both the fleet and the army of the 1st Punic and hope to dispatch it ere the 2nd arrives. I say try, because here the treasury is a severe limiting factor. With 192 t, we can only build 19 units, at least ten of which should be fleets. More likely 12 fleets and 7 new legions should be raised to give us two fleet advantage at sea and a one legion advantage on the ground -- provided there are no fleet losses. In this case we would again need a superior commander (since he essentially needs to win twice) as Field Consul and the Rome Consul can be a man of limited military capability.

"It should be noted that Senate Rule 9.9 prohibits the appointment of a Dictator unless Rome is facing three active wars or one with a strength > 19. We face neither of those conditions.

"At this point, I temporarily yield the floor to Applus Computus, Dean of the College of Augurs, who will review our prospects."

Valerius takes his seat as Applus reports to the Senate:

"Senators!

"The auguries are grim. Our best odds against the Punic Navy is but 70.83% and to achieve that we would have to send 21 combat factors (CF) -- by which I mean legions/fleets plus military leadership -- against them. That would be, say, Julius of ARBOROPHILIA and 17 fleets or Cunctator of CAELESTIS GENUS with 16. This, of course, would leave the army woefully undermanned to take on the Punic Army. Sending 14 CF gives us 33.33%, 15 CF 44.91%, 16 CF 54.63%, 17 CF 61.57% and so on. The following land battle would have the same odds-spread.

"As an example, sending Flaminius of ARBOROPHILIA with 12 fleets and 11 legions gives us 54.63% chance of winning the sea battle and if -- and a big if it is -- we take no losses a 44.91% chance to win the land battle -- only a 24.62% chance of both. Sending Cunctator raises the odds to 61.57%, 54.63% and 33.64%. The best odds theoretically attainable only give a 50.17% chance of a double victory.

"Senators, I thank you for your attention."

Applus retires from the Senate and Sulpicius of CORONUS addresses the Senate.

"Conscript Fathers!

"The financially sound thing to do, and this much grieves my money-spending wife, is to build only fleets this turn and forgo legions. While this is bad for my business, it's better for Rome. I remind you that legions not raised do not have to be maintained at the cost of 2t each, that our allies will be donating 50 t (enough for 5 legions!) to our cause next year, that noble Valerius will be donating 15% of the amount spent to build the fleet back to the Treasury, and that fleets which carry troops if sunk at sea cost us double."

Sulpicius sits and Valerius opens the floor for discussion..

Aemilus responds: Alas, the size of the combined Punic land and sea war make the appointment of a dictator possible and eminently reasonable at this time. To Applus, I say that I will happily take a 50% of taking out the most pernicious threat to Rome. We must attack the 1st Punic War each and every opportunity we can. Only by taking more chances can we overcome it's disaster and standoff chances. It is risky to put off the land battle til next year. I would rather have a chance at winning it this year than chance another disaster or standoff roll again next year. Finally, I would argue that Rome is not in a penniless state. It has nothing else to do with the money except raise forces this year and we will receive more next year. The 50 talents from our allies can pay the maintenance on ALL of our forces leaving us over 100 talents to do with as we please next year. If the 1st Punic War still stands, we can attack it again with greater strength. If not, we can recruit a few more legions to attack the 2nd Punic War and by the second year get rid of THAT war as well. Why this great fear of a dictator? It is for events like this that we established the office. Let us appoint one now before the situation becomes critically dangerous and we have to pray not to roll the disaster or standoff rolls. I will also note that with Cunctator as dictator, there is only a 39% chance of losing ANY forces in the naval battle. I will also note that Valerius has kindly offered to donate 15% of he income he derives from the fleet concession. When we build our 12 fleets, that gives him 36 talents of which he would donate 5 leaving him with 31 talents. A veritable horde. Should Cunctator be fortunate enough to win both the land and sea battles, he would even accede to having a minor prosecution against him in the following year in order to reduce his influence and popularity. Valerius, I do not mean to actively oppose you and your faction, I merely disagree strenuously with how to proceed in this one instance. Rome has given us the opportunity to be courageous and bold. We should not fight only the battle we know we can win. The odds, as calculated by your augurs and agreed to by mine, are reasonable. We should seize the day.

After a whispered conversation with the Senate parliamentarian, Hasslerius Magnus, Valerius rises to speak in the hush that follows amiable Aemilius's address.

“Conscript Fathers!

“I have been informed that a rider on the last bill of the last session did indeed amend Senate Rules to allow a Dictator in such a situation as this. I stand corrected and would like to address some of amiable Aemilius's comments.

“First, just because we can appoint a Dictator doesn't mean we should. Our forefathers established this mechanism for use in the direst of circumstances. The situation is not yet dire. First Punic is merely a nuisance at this time, albeit one with considerable potential for escalation. CORONUS agrees that 1st Punic must be attacked. We disagree with FINLANDIA on the advisability of conducting both naval and land campaigns. Barring appearances of leaders on either side, we face the same disaster/standoff odds this year or next on each attack so that is not an issue. The war would be at doubled strength, true, but that is a fiscal factor.

“Yes, Rome is not penniless -- at the moment. But the blizzard of wars the augurs foresee will surely strain the State Treasury. Every talent must be well spent. And I must ask amiable Aemilius to have his slave clean out his ear trumpet, for it's 15% of the cost of the fleet I will be donating or hosting games with, not 15% of my profits. For a 12-fleet navy that's 18 t, not 5 t. Will FINLANDIA match this contribution?

“Since appointment of a Dictator is a possibility, let us analyze this option. Dictator Cunctator and his Master of Horse Aemilius, both of FINLANDIA, will add 9 CF (or less if there are fewer fleets/legions than 9) to the fleet/legion strength. The optimal strength against the Punic navy is 21 CF (70.83% chance of victory, expect 1.329 fleets lost - 1.167 due to D/S-- before crafty Cunctator's talent is used) which is 12 fleets with money left over for 7 new legions (total 11); there is, however, a 9.26% chance that at least one victorious fleet sinks, taking a legion with it. Factoring in drowned legions the following land battle has odds ranging from 33.33 to 70.37%, ignoring the small chance that crafty Cunctator and/or amiable Aemilius will go down with a ship. Anyway, it works out to a 48.21% chance of double victory, 22.62% chance of a single victory and 29.17% chance of no victory. Expected losses are 2.422 fleets and legions, again before crafty Cunctator's talent.

“To achieve the minimum 29.17% chance of no fleet loss, the minimum fleet strength would need to be 16 (expect 1.556 fleets lost -- all due to D/S again without crafty Cunctator's talent) with only funds to raise 3 new legions. Crafty Cunctator has only a 33.33% chance of winning that battle or 23.61% overall. Expected losses are 3.625 fleets and legions -- again without crafty Cunctator's talent.

“I call on members of CAELESTIS GENUS, 100%LOYALUS, and ARBOROPHILIA to inform the Senate of their faction's view of what should be done. Of especial interest, will be ARBOROPHILIA who holds two of the three available 4-Mil senators.”

With that, Valerius returns to the Consul's chair.

Aemilius rises to respond:

And if we proceed with your plan on attacking the naval war this year and the land war next year, how will the odds have changed substantively? We have a 50/50 shot at eliminating this war whether we do it all at once this year or whether we split it between this year and next year. The only real difference is if we fail this year we get another chance next year. If we fail next year, the war will continue into it's third year and who knows what other hardships will arrive before then?

As to my Master of Horse, I would prefer a man of military mind outside of Finlandia to accompany Cunctator but if nobody wants the job I will have to take on the double burden myself. I find it odd that Valerius fears the Carthaginian power yet does not acknowledge the great risk we are putting our beloved Cunctator in - all for the good of Rome.

I apologize for my hearing. I had supposed the 15% was regarding your profit and am overjoyed to hear it is not. As to my matching your contribution, alas, Finlandia is not fortunate enough to have BOTH the armament concession and fleet concession. Such wealth concentrated in one faction surely reveals you are favored by Jupiter and the rest of us can merely dream of the riches you possess.

Bottom line, Cunctator's strategy is simple:

1. Raise 12 fleets

2. Raise 7 legions

3. Attack naval battle (62% victory with no losses, 9% victory with 1-2 legions lost)

4. Attack land battle (70% victory)

Those are good odds. Valerius' strategy yields

1. Raise 16 fleets

2. Attack Naval battle (71% victory)

And Next year Valerius's strategy yields

1. Raise 18 legions (remember the war has doubled in size)

2. Attack land battle (71% of victory)

One item of interest is the difference in the number of units raised. Let's look at them and the amount of money they generate for Valerius

Cunctator strategy

1. 12x3 + 7x2 = 50 talents for Valerius

Valerius' Strategy

1. 16x3 + 18x2 = 84 talents for Valerius

Hmm, Valerius opposes a Dictator attacking the 1st Punic war now while it is small because he does not think it necessary. I wonder if there is another reason why he opposes the strategy that raises less units?

Aemilius raises an eyebrow and takes a seat.

Junius of CORONUS addresses the Senate:

"Fellow Senators!

"Valerius has not mentioned yet another option available to the Senate -- probably because it enriches CORONUS coffers too much this year and is, frankly, inferior to the Dictator option militarily. It is to send two commanders to war against 1st Punic this year, one as admiral, the other as general. The advantage of this is that if the naval war fails, there would be no loss to our valuable legions. The disadvantage is there isn't enough funds in the treasury to do it properly. This will be a common paean for our multiple enemies.

"The question to you is this:

"'Is the temporary convenience of possibly taking out the 1st Punic in one try worth the threat of crafty Cunctator making himself indispensable later and so become King of Rome?

"All true Romans since the founding of the Republic, have an aversion for Kings. Why should we allow even one of our most solid citizens along that road to power this early in the 'game'? It is not unlikely that, if we need a Dictator now, we will again need a Dictator next year. Remember, there is less than a 50% chance that even crafty Cunctator as Dictator can pull off the double-play. The 2nd Punic will become active one way or the other. The gods only know if 1st Gallic, Hannibal, or whatever will show up. My point is that next year will likely be worse -- will we again appoint Cunctator Dictator? And the year after? Then what, elect him King and a minor god?

"No! The easy slope is the surest to damnation, and appointing a Dictator is the first step back under the yoke of a tyrant. Remember, 'Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.' And what is a Dictator is not a wielder of absolute power?"

Junius resumes his seat. Valerius adjourns the Senate until after lunch and invites the faction leaders to dine with him at Momma Rosa's to see if they can come up with an agreeable slate of candidates.

Quinctius addresses the faction leaders:

Senators Junius & Valerius,

You talk about how power corrupts the person and your so worried about Cunctator becoming a King of Rome, but its your Faction which holds the concessions Ship Building & Armaments. Cunctator depends on us to elect him Dictator, but we have a war to fight and who does this profit? Your Faction! The ducats you earn is more than all of the other Factions put together! Here you are talking about Cunctator, trying to point the finger at him, but you have three other fingers pointing back at you. We have listened to all points that Cunctator & You have said, and its time to move past this debate, and elect the new Consuls Valerius. Here we are bogged down in debate, not acting at all, and Carthage is mobilizing for War against US!!! We need leadership, NOT endless debates, but here we wait for you to nominate the next Senators up for election. You have made your point but its up to the next Consuls to decide which direction we should go. Of the next Consuls, they should come from the Factions Arborophilia & 100%Loyalus. If your intentions are truly for the Republic, then nominate one Senator from each of the Factions Arborophilia & 100%Loyalus to be the next Consuls so that we can start acting! We have a War to fight, Cunctator's plan is a good one, and if it fails... Who is the one who will be at the battle risking his life? Not you! You will be sitting back in Rome with the rest of us. Let the Military minds do their job, and let the rest do our job in Rome to better the Republic.

Quinctius

Caelestis Genus

After the last course is served and the servants have left the room, Valerius of CORONUS addresses the other four faction leaders.

"Fellow Senators, in order to get through the elections swiftly and without undue acrimony, we five need to decide on Rome's war strategy now. I assume that the new Consuls, or Dictator if they appoint one, will nominate Quinctius of CAELESTIS GENUS to be Pontifex. I am the only available candidate for Censor, so CORONUS will be represented.

"If our strategy is to do nothing -- and that would be a very bad idea -- then I propose Calpurnius of 100%LOYAUS and Plautius of ARBOROPHILIA.

"If we are to only attack the Punic fleet I propose Flaminius of ARBOROPHILIA and Calpurnia of 100%LOYALUS.

"If we will send two commanders, then I propose JULIUS of ARBOROPHILIA and Cunctator of FINLANDIA, but I fear this strategy is fiscally unworkable.

"If we are determined to have a dictator attack both the Punic fleet and the Punic army, then again I propose Calpurnius of 100%LOYALUS and Plautius of ARBOROPHILIA.

"I think it rather likely that if we don't have a dictator this year we will have one next so FINLANDIA will get its share of power soon. And I'm sure there will be some who would want one both years.

"So advise me, fellow Senators. FINLANDIA and CAELESTIS GENUS have publicly let it be known that they prefer the dictator option. What say you Julius of ARBOROPHILIA and Aurelius of 100%LOYALUS?"

Aurelius, always a man of few words, says, “100%Loyalus will cast his votes in favor of the Dictator option.”

The Senate reconvenes after lunch. Valerius stands.

"Conscript Fathers!

"I nominate Calpurnius of 100%LOYALUS and Plautius of ARBOROPHILIA to be our next consuls. Voting order is ARBOROPHILIA, 100%LOYALUS, CAELESTIS GENUS, FINLANDIA, and CORONUS. Vote!"

Factions

Senators

Senators

Senators

Senators

Senators

Note: Senators in bold are Faction Leaders. Senators in italics are not in Rome.

Rome

Active Forces

Land Bills

Forum

General Items:

Allied Enthusiasm

Stlorms at Sea

Claudius (Military 2, Oratory 3, Loyalty 7, Influence 4)

Inactive Wars

Active Wars

Unprosecuted Wars

Curia